Role of Mathematical Modeling in Bringing New Treatments to Patients

For centuries, predicting the weather relied on observations and rudimentary tools. Today, thanks to sophisticated mathematical models, weekend forecasts can pinpoint exact temperatures and wind speeds.  But did you know that a similar approach is transforming the way we discover new medicines?

Just like meteorologists use models to understand complex atmospheric systems, Impact Health Care leverages quantitative systems pharmacology (QSP) to unravel the intricate workings of diseases and potential treatments within the human body.

Building a QSP Model: A Step-by-Step Guide

The leading QSP expert at Impact Health Care sheds light on the intricate process of creating, testing, and utilizing a QSP model:

1. Defining the Focus and Question:  The journey begins with scientists pinpointing their area of study.  For example, they might choose to investigate a new diabetes medication and its potential impact on blood sugar levels.  Sometimes,  artificial intelligence (AI) is used to pinpoint the most relevant factors for investigation.

1. Establishing the Ground Rules:  Researchers meticulously gather existing knowledge about the disease, the potential treatment  (medication), and the body’s physiological processes. This information is gleaned from medical journals, human biology textbooks, and specialized databases.  An important aspect of this stage involves considering how these factors might vary from person to person, such as age, weight, or blood test results. This meticulous information gathering lays the groundwork for a model that can realistically represent the diverse range of patients who might benefit from the new treatment.

1. Crafting the Equations: Here’s where the magic happens! Scientists translate the complex biological interactions between the disease, the medication, and the body into mathematical equations. These equations can model how a medication interacts with a disease, predict how long it might take for treatment to improve a patient’s condition, or even describe the spatial impact of a treatment, such as the potential shrinkage of a tumour.  These intricate calculations form the building blocks of the QSP model.

1. Constructing Disease and Medication Models:  Separate models are meticulously built – one to represent the disease and its impact on the human body,  and the other to portray the medication and its interaction with both the disease and the body.

1. Unifying the Models:  The two individual models are then carefully merged and rigorously checked for consistency with the parameters established in Step 2.  This ensures a cohesive model that accurately reflects the real-world scenario.

1. Calibrating the Model:  The model is then fine-tuned using data from past clinical studies (often referred to as the “training dataset”).  This process helps align the model’s predictions with real-world results observed in past clinical trials.  In some instances, the model can be further customized to cater to the specific characteristics of particular patient groups, paving the way for a more personalized approach to medicine (precision medicine).

1. Validating the Model:  To ensure the model’s ability to predict unseen scenarios, scientists validate it by testing it with new data  (the “testing dataset”) not used in the calibration phase.  Successful validation instils confidence in the model’s ability to accurately forecast the potential effects of new medications.

1. Running Virtual Studies:  With a validated model in hand, scientists can now conduct virtual studies (“in silico” studies) to explore and test the effects of entirely new medications or dosages.  This allows for a rapid evaluation of a wide range of options before embarking on time-consuming and resource-intensive clinical trials involving real patients.  These virtual trials involve simulated patients within a computer environment.

1. Analyzing the Results:   The insights gleaned from the QSP model are invaluable for researchers developing new treatments.  The model can help predict how well a new drug might perform, identify the optimal dosage required for efficacy, pinpoint which patients are likely to benefit most from the treatment, and ultimately accelerate the development of life-changing medications for patients in need.

The Future of Predictive Medicine

Weather forecasting took centuries to evolve from rudimentary observations to the precise science it is today.  QSP, on the other hand, is experiencing a rapid growth trajectory, swiftly establishing itself as a critical tool in the medical research arsenal.  As QSP continues to evolve, it holds immense potential for revolutionising patient care and significantly expanding the treatment options available to patients worldwide.

Beyond the Steps: The Advantages of QSP

While the ten steps outlined above provide a foundational understanding of QSP model development, it’s important to acknowledge the broader advantages this approach offers:

• Reduced Reliance on Animal Testing: By utilising virtual patients in “in silico” studies, QSP can significantly reduce the need for animal testing in the early stages of drug development.